Potential Adversities Confronting China’s Continued Economic Growth

Widely divergent views about China's future are prevalent among policymakers, politicians, pundits, business people, analysts, and academics. Prominent among the questions on which their views diverge are the following: 1. At what rates and for how long will China continue its rapid economic growth of the past two decades? 1 2. What are the major challenges, fault lines, and potential adversities (the terms are used synonymously in this study) that China's economic development will encounter in the next decade, and how much of an impact on its economic performance will these have if they occur separately or in clusters? 3. How will the rate of China's economic growth affect the pace and content of its military modernization? 2 ______________ 1 The U.S.-China Security Review Commission in its hearings and final report in 2002 generally displayed a consensus view that high rates of economic growth in China would continue for the foreseeable future.